Novavax (NVAX) has a good chance of reporting data in January from its late stage clinical studies of the company's COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373. I previously wrote that NVAX is a potential long heading into that data, but material changes to that story might make that long even more compelling.

What has happened to the stock

NVAX finds itself having pulled back from recent highs in late November/early December when I last wrote about the stock. Let's keep things simple though, NVAX is a COVID-19 vaccine play, despite enthusiasm among longs for NanoFlu, the company's flu vaccine technology, the market's primary interest is in COVID-19. If the company's Phase 3 data from trials in the UK and South Africa are impressive, the stock is set to rally, if the data aren't so impressive, then the stock is going to plummet. Since an obvious first price target if data are strong would be previous 52-week highs of $189.40, getting in closer to $115, rather than ~$135 represents quite a lot more upside. Simply put, the risk/reward is more favourable at this lower price.

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