McCormick's Q4 Good Enough To Stay Long

1/26/18

Though I'm long McCormick (MKC), I can't say it's one of my favorite stocks. Valuation does look a bit concerning, particularly when considering a heavily leveraged balance sheet. Performance really hasn't been that strong of late, considering gains in the broad market. And there are some qualitative issues here, notably concerns about market share erosion to private label brands (even if that erosion simply shifts some sales to McCormick's own private label business).

And though MKC gained an even 5% after releasing fiscal Q4 results on Thursday morning, I'm perhaps not quite as impressed as some investors. McCormick posted a good quarter, admittedly, coming in ahead of consensuson the top and bottom lines. FY18 EPS guidance of $4.80-$4.90 was above Street estimates of $4.70 as well. Still, there was some tax help, and this is a stock trading at ~17x FY18 implied EBITDA guidance, with net leverage of 5x. And the quarter didn't quite erase the concerns surrounding market share and valuation.

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